Round One...

Overall, tonight was a bad night for the President. I think in terms of substance--the point, counterpoint of debating--Bush edged out Kerry. Kerry opened himself up to so many attacks that I'm upset at how few Bush pounced on--but he pounced on just enough that I think Bush won the debate on substance and correctness. (I was upset, though, that Bush didn't attack Kerry for saying that the war in Iraq was a mistake but that the troops weren't dying for a mistake--the two together make no sense whatsoever, and Kerry wasn't rebuked for it). But beyond that, Bush destroyed himself. Kerry really presented the President with no surprises. His stylistic approach to debate and the points he made were easily foreseeable. Kerry didn't do that great in my opinion, but he didn't do badly either. Rather, it was the President's poor stylistic performance tonight that will feed a media love fest for a week until the next debate.

President Bush's greatest strength has always been his sincere, warm personality; it provides a stark contrast to Kerry. Don't get me wrong, Bush still struck me as sincere and warm, but he lacked passion and was too repetative and because of this, his strengths were diminished. He just didn't look as good as Kerry and that means a world of difference today (Nixon arguably lost the Presidential election of 1960 for failing to wear makeup for his first TV debate with Kennedy).

And I don't know how the Bush camp can account for this, but they abandoned the stunningly successful formula they devised for the Republican convention: 9/11 9/11 9/11. The more Bush talks about 9/11 the more votes he gets, the more passionate he becomes, and the more his war on terror and the war in Iraq make sense. There was far too much repetative talk from Bush about the war in Iraq without that essential link and emphasis on 9/11. Kerry has no ground to stand on when Bush talks about this, and why Bush didn't exploit that is beyond me.

Yes, the polls will tighten and the media is fast marching to the drumbeat of their preordained Kerry comeback. But I think this will make little difference in the election (assuming Bush is par for the course in the next two debates). If this is Bush's worst performance, its a good thing its the first debate. The memory and impact of tonight will fade, and new events (and new Kerry flipflops) will continue to redefine the campaign. Remember, Reagan, as an incumbent President got whacked by Mondale in their first debate in 1984. But Reagan came back strong in the final debates and won in a landslide in November. Any boost Kerry gets in the polls is likely to come from the Democratic base that up to this point has been demoralized and stripped of their desire to support Kerry.

In the short term, tonight was a disaster for Bush. But in the long run, I think it provided the Bush campaign with a healthy reality check: they can take nothing for granted; they have no room to be cocky (confident, yes, but not cocky); and Bush must work much harder to better engage the issues and show the American people not only his sincerity and firmness, but his passion and enthusiasm for what he believes.