Election Forecast
With the election just a few days away now, I'm ready to go out on a limb and make my state by state predictions. With 50 states to consider and unknowns ahead, the margin for error is great. But I think Bush will hold the momentum in the final few days (especially with Arnold helping him in Ohio) and seal a victory. In comparison to past incumbent elections, this one will be close. But not as close as the media would have you to believe. Bush will carry 52% of the popular vote to Kerry's 47%. Bush will most likely win with 306 electoral votes to Kerry's 232. Bush will win every state he carried in 2000 except New Hampshire. He will pick up, though, Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Minnesota--states Gore won.
Florida will go for Bush by a margin of 3 points. Barring rain in Philedelphia and Pittsburg, Bush will fail to carry Pennsylvania--the state simply has too strong of a Democratic base in the big cities. Ohio is going to be tighter than I'd like, but Bush should win it by 2%. Bush hasn't paid as much attention to the state as I had thought he would which can only mean that the Bush campaign's internal polling is looking good for them.
As election night unfolds, there are several indicators to watch out for...
A win for Bush in New Hampshire would be a portent of bad things to come for Kerry. This New England state should be Kerry's easiest pick up. And Kerry can't win unless he holds all the states Gore won plus picks up at least one that Bush won.
There's been a lot of talk in the last few weeks about a possible Bush upset in New Jersey. This would be fabulous, but it's also a bit of wishful thinking. But if Bush looses New Jersey by 5 points or less, the election is probably over for Kerry. New Jersy is simply too large of a Democratic bastion for Bush to get that close.
Likewise, if Bush manages to keep the results in Pennsylvania within 2-3 points, it will be a long night for Kerry. Democrats have to carry Pennsylvania by at least 5% to win nationally.
Kerry won't have a chance of winning if he looses Florida by more than 4%. This would be a sign of an erosion in his national support among Hispanics and African-Americans.
Assuming Florida goes for Bush, there is almost no electoral scenario in which Kerry can survive loosing Ohio.
Michigan and Hawaii are two states that I'm pained to predict to go to Kerry--but not by much. It's very reasonable that Bush could possibly win one of these if not both (I put the odds at 40-60 for Bush). Michigan, like all the Great Lake states is trending Republican. It's still heavily unionized with an efficient democratic machine in place. But the gay marriage amendment on the ballot along with the increasing willingness of conservative democrats to vote Republican could tip the balance. Hawaii is another fun case. Although Gore carried the state by an enormous 18 points, Hawaii tends to stick with the incumbent--Republican or Democratic. I think a large part of this is grounded in the state's large presence of Japanese-Americans whose culture tends to place a premium on loyalty. Bush coming within even 5 points of winning would be huge given what happened in Hawaii in 2000.
Minnesota will be another close state, but I think it's been trending Republican enough to go for Bush this go around. Plus, Kerry has been losing a lot of ground in the northern part of the state this past week (especially in the 8th congressional district) over--of all things--snowmobiles (I guess it would be a big issue for me if Mississippi enjoyed as much snow as northern Minnesota).
If any of my forecasts are wrong, I think the culprit states are most likely to be New Hampshire and Michigan. Again, Ohio will be tight but I'm hedging my bets that its Republican base is enough to carry through for the GOP at least one more time around. Fortunately for Bush, he can lose Ohio and still win so long as he picks up Iowa and Wisconsin--two state's he more likely to win than he is to lose Ohio.
In the final analysis, I could be completely wrong on almost everything I'm predicting. No one knows for sure save God Himself. But based on what's happend historically and what's known now, I believe this is the best analysis that can be offered.
Florida will go for Bush by a margin of 3 points. Barring rain in Philedelphia and Pittsburg, Bush will fail to carry Pennsylvania--the state simply has too strong of a Democratic base in the big cities. Ohio is going to be tighter than I'd like, but Bush should win it by 2%. Bush hasn't paid as much attention to the state as I had thought he would which can only mean that the Bush campaign's internal polling is looking good for them.
As election night unfolds, there are several indicators to watch out for...
A win for Bush in New Hampshire would be a portent of bad things to come for Kerry. This New England state should be Kerry's easiest pick up. And Kerry can't win unless he holds all the states Gore won plus picks up at least one that Bush won.
There's been a lot of talk in the last few weeks about a possible Bush upset in New Jersey. This would be fabulous, but it's also a bit of wishful thinking. But if Bush looses New Jersey by 5 points or less, the election is probably over for Kerry. New Jersy is simply too large of a Democratic bastion for Bush to get that close.
Likewise, if Bush manages to keep the results in Pennsylvania within 2-3 points, it will be a long night for Kerry. Democrats have to carry Pennsylvania by at least 5% to win nationally.
Kerry won't have a chance of winning if he looses Florida by more than 4%. This would be a sign of an erosion in his national support among Hispanics and African-Americans.
Assuming Florida goes for Bush, there is almost no electoral scenario in which Kerry can survive loosing Ohio.
Michigan and Hawaii are two states that I'm pained to predict to go to Kerry--but not by much. It's very reasonable that Bush could possibly win one of these if not both (I put the odds at 40-60 for Bush). Michigan, like all the Great Lake states is trending Republican. It's still heavily unionized with an efficient democratic machine in place. But the gay marriage amendment on the ballot along with the increasing willingness of conservative democrats to vote Republican could tip the balance. Hawaii is another fun case. Although Gore carried the state by an enormous 18 points, Hawaii tends to stick with the incumbent--Republican or Democratic. I think a large part of this is grounded in the state's large presence of Japanese-Americans whose culture tends to place a premium on loyalty. Bush coming within even 5 points of winning would be huge given what happened in Hawaii in 2000.
Minnesota will be another close state, but I think it's been trending Republican enough to go for Bush this go around. Plus, Kerry has been losing a lot of ground in the northern part of the state this past week (especially in the 8th congressional district) over--of all things--snowmobiles (I guess it would be a big issue for me if Mississippi enjoyed as much snow as northern Minnesota).
If any of my forecasts are wrong, I think the culprit states are most likely to be New Hampshire and Michigan. Again, Ohio will be tight but I'm hedging my bets that its Republican base is enough to carry through for the GOP at least one more time around. Fortunately for Bush, he can lose Ohio and still win so long as he picks up Iowa and Wisconsin--two state's he more likely to win than he is to lose Ohio.
In the final analysis, I could be completely wrong on almost everything I'm predicting. No one knows for sure save God Himself. But based on what's happend historically and what's known now, I believe this is the best analysis that can be offered.
5 Comments:
It's interesting to me that last year's election has sort of become the paradigm for this years--people seem to be expecting something like that to happen.
On the flipside, though, the last three major elections I've voted in have all been close enough to cause confusion or problems: The Musgrove/Parker Mississippi gubernatorial election, the Bush/Gore presidential election, and the Riley/Siegelman gubernatorial election.
Maybe there really is some trend toward either increasingly close or increasingly complicated elections.
Or maybe it's just me.
Popular vote 51-48 for Kerry, with Nader beating out Badnarik for 3rd.
Bush picks up nothing new from 2000. I'm tempted to give him New Mexico, but I feel like the polls are underestimating the amount of Hispanics that will vote this year.
Kerry picks up Ohio, Florida (although you guys will try to steal it again), New Hampshire, and Colorado.
Not a landslide, but certainly a convincing win.
John A. K.
Jordan, Thursday's stuff is old news. Do you have any last minute comments on the eve of the election?
I think that you should have an "Election Chaos Party" instead of the big victory party that you are planning. I don't think there is any way that we will have a winner by next Tuesday, much less midnight.
If there is a clear winner, I think that it will be Kerry because of all of those idiot "Rock the Vote" people. Its said that ignorance in numbers can elect a President. I just hope that all of those Rappers and MTV people will accept the fact that the next terrorist attack that occurs will be their fault. Come to think of it, maybe Puff Daddy should go to Iraq with his "Vote or Die" campaign. I bet I know wich one Al Zarquawi would choose for P-Diddy.
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